Tyler Jewell: 'Peak DevOps' to Drive a New Wave of Autonomous Software Development
In his 2022 Developer Landscape report, Tyler Jewell, Managing Director at Dell Technologies Capital, posits that the industry has reached a moment of “Peak DevOps,” where factors such as increasing software complexity, higher costs to build and maintain software systems, and lower developer job satisfaction will “seed a 3rd wave of software industrialization driven by Autonomous Software Development.”
As various functions across the software development lifecycle - such as coding, testing, and deployment - become increasingly automated through machine learning algorithms, Jewell predicts that - in the not too distant future - “coders working with IDEs” will become “model and machine learning artisans.”
Humans [will] shift their role from developers to directors, taking responsibility for describing system intent, managing the robotic infrastructure that builds and maintains the software, and providing the data + models needed to arm and improve the machines.
These are largely the skills and expertise embodied by data scientists today. A large majority of the 40 million professional developers that will exist in 2040 will undergo a reskilling in order to adopt and embrace these techniques. Everyone will be scrambling to revisit their undergraduate statistics classes; I know I will.
-Tyler Jewell, Dell Technologies Capital
Jewell’s report is quite expansive, covering past and current trends and providing economic forecasts across a wide range of DevOps tools and technologies. From a developer marketing perspective, here are some key sections of the report that may be of particular interest:
The supply of developer developer talent is not meeting the demand for new digital services
Two decades of increasing software complexity have limited developer productivity gains
Developer Relations (DevRel) Has Emerged As An Extension Of Marketing, Support, and Product Organizations Employing 5000 To Further Enable Developer Users And Buyers.
Fragmented Tooling, Infrastructure, and Platform Drag Productivity As Developers Spend Increasingly More Time Evaluating And Adopting Technologies Which May Not Exist In Five Years.
DevOps Automation, Which Abstracts And Shifts Complexity, Improves Developer Productivity
Diagrams of interest from the report:
Shades of DevOps Roles (“Patrick Debois of Snyk maps the roles of DevOps teams over time”)